U.S. and global holiday ecommerce sales are projected to experience year-over-year growth in 2026, driven by advancements in AI-powered referrals, the increasing adoption of flexible payment options, the continued expansion of cross-border commerce, and the evolving market dynamics of Amazon. For over a decade, the author has provided insights into ecommerce trends and sales forecasts for the holiday season, offering a detailed outlook for 2026 based on current market indicators and historical performance.
Ecommerce Set for 8% Growth in 2026 Holiday Season
U.S. online holiday sales, encompassing the period from November 1st through December 31st, are anticipated to increase by approximately 8% compared to the same timeframe in the previous year. This projection aligns with recent performance data and broader retail trends. Adobe’s recent report indicated that consumers spent $257.8 billion online with U.S. merchants during the 2025 holiday season, representing a 6.8% increase. Furthermore, data from the June 2026 Prime Day event demonstrated a significant uplift in ecommerce activity, with purchases from U.S. sellers increasing by 9.3%.
While the National Retail Federation (NRF) has not yet released its specific 2026 holiday forecast, the organization anticipates a 4.4% increase in overall retail sales for the full year, a figure that encompasses both online and brick-and-mortar channels. This forecast for full-year retail growth represents an acceleration from the average annual growth rate of 3.6% observed over the past decade, excluding the pandemic period. The expected improvement in the broader retail sector is a positive indicator for online sales, suggesting that ecommerce growth will likely mirror or exceed this trend. The projected 8% growth for holiday ecommerce in 2026 surpasses both last year’s performance and the NRF’s full-year retail prediction, highlighting the resilience and continued expansion of the digital marketplace during this crucial shopping period.
This sustained growth in online holiday sales can be attributed to several factors. Consumers have become increasingly accustomed to the convenience and vast selection offered by online retailers, making it their preferred channel for gift shopping. The integration of advanced technologies and innovative payment solutions further enhances the online shopping experience, encouraging higher spending. The holiday season, characterized by heightened consumer spending and a desire for unique gifts, remains a pivotal period for online merchants to capture significant revenue.
AI-Referred Shoppers Exhibit Superior Conversion Rates
A significant development shaping the 2026 holiday shopping season is the enhanced conversion performance of shoppers referred through generative AI tools. It is projected that these AI-referred shoppers will convert at a rate at least 25% higher than those arriving from non-AI channels during the peak shopping period. This trend is not entirely new; Adobe reported last Christmas that AI-referred shoppers converted 31% better than traffic from other sources. This advantage was even more pronounced on Thanksgiving Day, reaching 54%, and on Black Friday, with AI referrals converting 38% better.
The momentum has continued into 2026. During the June Prime Day event, AI-referred shoppers demonstrated a 40% better conversion rate compared to non-AI channels, even as traffic from AI tools saw year-over-year growth. While the current volume of AI-driven site visits remains a small fraction of the total ecommerce market, its influence is steadily increasing. As more consumers integrate tools like Gemini, ChatGPT, and similar platforms into their purchasing journey, the conversion rates are expected to normalize towards the performance levels seen in traditional search and other established channels. Consequently, as AI reaches a broader consumer base this holiday season, its superior conversion rates are anticipated to significantly impact overall sales figures.
The implications of this trend are profound. For businesses, it underscores the importance of optimizing their presence and content for AI-driven discovery. Personalized recommendations and tailored product information generated by AI can lead to more informed purchase decisions, thereby reducing cart abandonment and increasing conversion. This also presents an opportunity for marketers to leverage AI not just for traffic generation but for enhancing the customer journey, offering a more seamless and engaging shopping experience. The continued refinement of AI algorithms promises to make these referrals even more precise and effective in the coming years.
Buy-Now, Pay-Later Services to Exceed $22 Billion in Holiday Spending
Buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) services are poised to finance over $22 billion in U.S. online purchases between November 1st and December 31st, 2026. The inherent appeal of installment payments becomes particularly pronounced during the Christmas season, a period when consumers often aim to express generosity without overburdening their monthly budgets or incurring high credit card interest rates. This desire to spread the cost of gifts over time is expected to drive BNPL spending past the $22 billion mark for the first time during the 2026 holiday season, solidifying postponed payment options as an increasingly common and integral part of consumer finance.
The rise of BNPL services can be traced back to evolving consumer expectations for financial flexibility and a growing distrust of traditional credit products, particularly among younger demographics. Services like Affirm, Klarna, and Afterpay have capitalized on this demand by offering a transparent and accessible alternative to credit cards. Their integration into major e-commerce platforms has made them readily available at checkout, further normalizing their use.
The financial implications of this trend are significant for both consumers and retailers. For consumers, BNPL offers a way to manage holiday expenses more effectively, potentially leading to increased spending on gifts. For retailers, offering BNPL can lead to higher average order values and reduced cart abandonment rates, as consumers may be more willing to make larger purchases when payment is deferred. However, concerns remain regarding consumer debt accumulation and the potential for impulse buying, which regulators and financial institutions are closely monitoring. The continued growth of BNPL signals a fundamental shift in how consumers approach purchasing, particularly for discretionary items.
International Ecommerce Continues Its Global Ascent
Cross-border purchases are projected to constitute approximately 20% of worldwide Black Friday and Cyber Monday ecommerce spending in 2026. International shopping has transitioned from a niche activity to a mainstream consumer behavior. DHL’s 2026 E-Commerce Trends Report highlights this shift, indicating that 70% of global online shoppers now purchase from sellers in other countries, an increase from 60% the previous year. Furthermore, 45% of these international shoppers make cross-border purchases more than once a month, underscoring the habitual nature of global online commerce.
Chinese merchants currently dominate the cross-border sales landscape, with 59% of international shoppers purchasing from Chinese sellers. This figure nearly doubles the 32% of shoppers who buy from U.S. sellers. The primary driver for this trend is the lower price point offered by many Chinese retailers. The widespread adoption of Chinese discount marketplaces further facilitates this phenomenon. Reports indicate that 41% of international shoppers utilize Temu, 32% use Shein, and 22% engage with platforms like Alibaba or AliExpress.
These established purchasing habits are expected to extend into the holiday shopping period, thereby pushing international transactions to represent roughly one in every five dollars spent online globally during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales events. The implications for businesses are substantial. Retailers who can navigate the complexities of international shipping, customs, and currency exchange can tap into a vast and growing global customer base. For consumers, cross-border shopping provides access to a wider array of products and competitive pricing, enriching their holiday shopping options. The continued growth in this sector suggests an increasingly interconnected global marketplace, where geographical boundaries are becoming less of a barrier to commerce.
Amazon Sellers Face Shifting Market Share Dynamics
Third-party sellers are expected to account for 60% or less of Amazon’s worldwide units sold during the fourth quarter of 2026. The dominance of third-party sellers on Amazon’s platform has seen a gradual shift, with Amazon’s own retail operations gaining a marginal, yet consistent, share. In the fourth quarter of 2024, third-party sellers represented 62% of worldwide units sold. This figure slightly decreased to 61% in Q4 2025. The trend continued into early 2026, with the share falling to 60% in the first quarter before rebounding to 61% in the second quarter.
The projection for the fourth quarter of 2026 suggests that Amazon’s direct retail business will gain enough traction to keep third-party sellers at or below 60% of paid units sold. This evolving market share dynamic on Amazon, the world’s largest online marketplace, has significant implications for both Amazon and its third-party sellers. For Amazon, an increased share of direct sales can translate to higher profit margins, as the company can retain the full retail price rather than sharing it with third-party sellers. This also allows Amazon greater control over pricing, inventory management, and the overall customer experience.
For third-party sellers, this trend may necessitate adjustments to their strategies. Increased competition from Amazon’s own private label brands and potentially more aggressive pricing from Amazon itself could put pressure on their profitability. Sellers may need to focus on niche products, superior customer service, or unique value propositions to differentiate themselves. Furthermore, the evolving marketplace dynamics could influence seller acquisition and retention strategies for Amazon, as the company seeks to balance its own retail interests with the vibrant ecosystem of independent sellers that have been a cornerstone of its success. The continued growth of ecommerce globally, coupled with Amazon’s significant market presence, means that even a slight shift in market share can have a substantial impact on the revenue and business strategies of millions of sellers.
A Look Back: 2025 Prediction Performance
An examination of the author’s five predictions for the 2025 holiday shopping season reveals a mixed but generally accurate assessment of key trends. The prediction regarding "rapid fulfillment," where at least 35% of November and December ecommerce orders would be received or picked up within 24 hours, could not be definitively proven due to the absence of a 2025 edition of Comscore’s annual State of Digital Commerce Report, which was expected to provide the necessary fulfillment-speed data.
Similarly, the prediction about "Canadian-American relations" and cross-border purchases, which posited that at least 55% of Canadian shoppers would make a holiday purchase from a U.S. ecommerce store, lacked definitive transaction data for confirmation. While Canada and the U.S. remain significant trading partners, factors such as tariff disputes were noted as potentially influencing Canadian sentiment towards American companies and products.
The prediction for "small-business growth," which forecasted that smaller U.S. online merchants would increase holiday revenue by approximately 10% in 2025, reaching roughly $15.5 billion, also suffered from a lack of post-holiday datasets that could isolate this specific segment.
However, two key predictions for 2025 proved accurate. The "AI shopping at 50%" prediction, which anticipated that at least half of North American shoppers would utilize AI for holiday shopping and that AI product discovery would become the top ecommerce traffic source, was broadly supported by survey data. Synchrony reported U.S. usage at 56%, while Epsilon indicated 29%, showing a substantial adoption rate. Finally, the "consumer confidence" prediction was validated by Epsilon’s findings of average holiday spending reaching $1,190, 52% above preseason expectations, and Adobe’s report of record U.S. online sales totaling $257.8 billion, up 6.8%. This historical analysis provides a foundation for the current 2026 forecasts, building on past observations and market evolution.
